Prediction:
The Republican National Convention will be wildly successful. Maybe not by past standards -- many of which simply cannot be fairly applied to this election -- but as far as the 2004 presidential election is concerned, and especially in comparison to the Democratic National Convention, the Republicans have the opportunity to, and I believe will, have a very successful convention.
One reason for this is that in such a close election they cannot, and will not allow themselves to make anything less than a good showing. This of course applied to the Democrats as well, and they did end up putting together a good convention that allowed them to take a few positive steps forward. However, the one area in which the Democrats were lacking is the area the Republicans will use to make their convention far more successful than the Democrat's. That area is the area of attacks. The Democrats were so concerned about presenting a positive, pro-Kerry attitude that their convention wound up being wiped clean of almost every direct attack of President Bush. Instead, we heard many indirect criticisms in which Bush's name rarely, if ever, came up, followed by high praise for John Kerry. You can rest assured that the Republican Convention will be far different in this respect. While it will of course present a pro-Bush message, it will at the same time, and quite possibly more so, present a most unquestionable anti-Kerry message. The Republicans can, and most likely will use their convention as an opportunity to ravage the image the Democrats have built for John Kerry.
On top of this George Bush will be in a prime position to capitalize on his leadership on September 11, 2001. Whether or not the Republican leaders involved in the convention production will admit it, 9/11 will, if nothing else, be a hidden theme of the convention, especially when former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani speaks.
Much could be inferred from anything that could possibly be construed as excessive negativity. However, in the end this will not matter. All that will matter at the of this coming week, when the delegates are cheering for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney and the balloons are falling, is whether or not something said over the course of the four day convention resonated with the small yet immensely important population of undecided voters. Given the current atmosphere surrounding the presidential race, the Republicans can capitalize big time from their convention, and in a race that is so close, "big time" could translate into nothing more than an additional 4% or 5% of the electorate. I know the Republicans know this and I know they will use every ounce of this knowledge to their advantage, which I believe will translate into a wildly successful election -- in 2004 presidential election terms of course. Personally, I hope I am wrong. If I am not though, John Kerry needs to be ready to come out swinging extra hard on September 3.
One reason for this is that in such a close election they cannot, and will not allow themselves to make anything less than a good showing. This of course applied to the Democrats as well, and they did end up putting together a good convention that allowed them to take a few positive steps forward. However, the one area in which the Democrats were lacking is the area the Republicans will use to make their convention far more successful than the Democrat's. That area is the area of attacks. The Democrats were so concerned about presenting a positive, pro-Kerry attitude that their convention wound up being wiped clean of almost every direct attack of President Bush. Instead, we heard many indirect criticisms in which Bush's name rarely, if ever, came up, followed by high praise for John Kerry. You can rest assured that the Republican Convention will be far different in this respect. While it will of course present a pro-Bush message, it will at the same time, and quite possibly more so, present a most unquestionable anti-Kerry message. The Republicans can, and most likely will use their convention as an opportunity to ravage the image the Democrats have built for John Kerry.
On top of this George Bush will be in a prime position to capitalize on his leadership on September 11, 2001. Whether or not the Republican leaders involved in the convention production will admit it, 9/11 will, if nothing else, be a hidden theme of the convention, especially when former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani speaks.
Much could be inferred from anything that could possibly be construed as excessive negativity. However, in the end this will not matter. All that will matter at the of this coming week, when the delegates are cheering for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney and the balloons are falling, is whether or not something said over the course of the four day convention resonated with the small yet immensely important population of undecided voters. Given the current atmosphere surrounding the presidential race, the Republicans can capitalize big time from their convention, and in a race that is so close, "big time" could translate into nothing more than an additional 4% or 5% of the electorate. I know the Republicans know this and I know they will use every ounce of this knowledge to their advantage, which I believe will translate into a wildly successful election -- in 2004 presidential election terms of course. Personally, I hope I am wrong. If I am not though, John Kerry needs to be ready to come out swinging extra hard on September 3.
posted by Adam Cohen at 2:05 AM
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